Call for predictions of social effect of COVID-19

Dear colleagues,

Do you have predictions of the social consequences of COVID19? We are seeking expert estimates (scientists, CS, etc.) based on expertise or models for life satisfaction, affect on social media, race and gender bias, political ideology, and political polarization. The goal of this project is to investigate the accuracy of forecasts made by social scientists about critical social issues in the US over the next 12 months.

By participating, you will gain insights into your estimate accuracy and have the opportunity to get authorship on the resulting publication. Deadline is May 15.

If you choose to participate, you can use your expertise and/or data modeling to estimate points for each of the next 12 months, then answer a few questions about your rationale/model. You use past data (available at https://predictions.uwaterloo.ca/datasets/) to inform these predictions. After six months, we will contact you again to obtain possible updates on your forecasts based on new data.

We are aiming to publish the results in an interdisciplinary high-impact journal, and to summarize the forecasts to the general public.

More details about how to participate are available here: https://predictions.uwaterloo.ca/

Best wishes and stay safe!
Amanda Rotella
Igor Grossmann
The Behavioral Science Forecasting Collaborative

This study has been reviewed and received ethics clearance through a University of Waterloo Research Ethics Committee (ORE#42142). If you have any questions about the study, please contact Igor Grossmann.

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