Cohort Dynamics and Social Cleavages: A Comparative Analysis of Political Identification and Engagement in Europe


Sébastien Parker, University of Toronto

This paper presents an innovative diachronic, cohort-based analysis of political identification and political engagement. Leveraging data from the European Social Survey (2002-2020) and focusing on a historical-comparative analysis of France, Hungary, Spain, and Sweden, the study examines dealignment, realignment, and alignment trends, grounded in distinct socio-political contexts. The four cases selected are based on expected variations in cleavage politics and cohort patterns: in France, the declining importance of religion and a supposed realignment in terms of educational groups paired with an increasing center-periphery cleavage; in Spain, the often discussed enduring importance of class, religion, and agrarian-regional cleavages recently challenged by the Eurozone crisis; in Sweden, persistent class cleavages but increasing urban-rural divides; and, finally, in Hungary, the significant realignment across economic and cultural dimensions, notably for class and education cleavages. Methodologically, the paper introduces significant innovations by decomposing overall trends into intra- and inter-cohort trends, enabling a distinction between social and life-cycle change. Employing descriptive age-period-cohort (APC) models with smoothing splines, it captures nonlinear patterns dynamically without relying on strong assumptions. There are few significant advantages to the proposed analytic strategy. Unlike period-based models and synchronic generational analyses, the proposed model provides estimates of inter-cohort (or social change) trends that are adjusted for intra-cohort (or life-cycle) trends, allowing to develop a more complete and less distorted account of how socio-political attitudes have changed over time and across contexts. The study leverages the proposed model to test theoretical expectations regarding cohort trends across key social cleavages like class, education, geography, religion, ethnic identity, and gender, offering insights into the patterning of social change across the four cases under scrutiny. In the case of France, for example, the paper critically assesses various narratives and theoretical claims about the country’s socio-political trajectory. The findings reveal deep social inequalities widening the gap between citizens, particularly in terms of political interests, political engagement, and the capacity to engage in politics. Individuals from higher social classes, the more educated, urban dwellers, and those leaning towards the right, we find, increasingly distinguish themselves from the rest of the population. Moreover, the findings reveal that recent protests do not stem from an intergenerational shift towards more assertive and critical citizenship. Instead, we show that the trends arise from a growing sense of indifference and alienation reaching a tipping point, prompting citizens, many for the first time, to take to the streets to express their discontent – trends largely in support of a generational dealignment rather than a realignment. The findings are contrasted with that of Sweden, Spain, and Hungary, helping forward a long-term, cohort-based understanding of shifting socio-political landscapes where traditional cleavages based on class, education, and geography continue to play a crucial role but are being reconfigured in new ways. We end the paper by discussing the implications of our proposed approach to studies broadly in the areas of historical, comparative, and political sociology: specifically, we highlight how employing a cohort perspective offers a vital lens by distinguishing between generational shifts and age-related changes. We contend that this help consider distinct experiences and attitudes of successive cohorts, informing theorization about long-term generational trends in a comparative fashion, while helping avoid inherent issues with period-based evaluations.

Non-presenting author: Ethan Fosse, University of Toronto

This paper will be presented at the following session: