The Revolution Next Door


Kaitlin Wannamaker, McGill University

This paper titled “The Revolution Next Door” critically examines the transnational impact of revolutionary activities, particularly focusing on their influence on democracy and equality in neighboring countries. It addresses a significant gap in the existing literature by exploring the spillover effects of revolutions, which have historically been central to national developmental trajectories and are now considered in a global context. The central research question investigates the extent to which revolutionary activities in one country can instigate policy changes and concessions in neighboring countries. This inquiry is vital, considering the interconnected nature of modern global politics and the potential for revolutionary fervor to cross borders. The theoretical framework of the study is grounded in historical and contemporary analyses of revolutions (Tilly 1978; Skocpol 1979; McAdam, McCarthy, and Zald 1996). It hypothesizes that the fear of revolutionary contagion might compel elites in neighboring countries to pre-emptively offer concessions related to democracy and equality, aiming to mitigate potential uprisings. Employing a comprehensive data set covering 171 countries over 120 years, this research meticulously analyzes the relationships between types of political upheavals and their subsequent effects on democracy and equality. The methodology includes a detailed examination of various upheaval types, namely revolutions, coups, and protest-led ousters, and their respective impacts across time and space. This approach allows for a comprehensive look at both direct and indirect effects of revolutionary activities. The study’s findings show that revolutions in neighboring countries have a positive impact on domestic levels of democracy and equality. Specifically, we document noticeable increases in democracy and two indices of economic egalitarianism in countries adjacent to those experiencing revolutionary change. However, the robustness of these effects varies, with one of the egalitarianism measures being consistent across all model specifications. In contrast, isolated “protest-led ousters” are found to moderately increase suffrage and egalitarianism, while coups do not have a significant impact on these variables. Table 1 in the paper provides a comprehensive overview of the descriptive statistics related to political upheavals and the key democracy and inequality variables under study. This table is crucial in demonstrating the empirical foundation underpinning the research conclusions. The implications of this research are profound in understanding the mechanisms through which revolutions can foster reform beyond their original borders. By highlighting the potential of revolutionary moments to induce positive social changes in neighboring states, the study contributes significantly to the broader discourse on global and local dynamics in political sociology and comparative politics. It underscores the interconnectedness of global events and domestic policy changes, offering significant insights into the mechanisms through which revolutions can have a reformist impact. “The Revolution Next Door” represents a novel and critical contribution to our understanding of the dynamics of revolutionary spillovers and their reformist ends. The research illuminates the global-to-local causal sequence, demonstrating how global events like revolutions can influence domestic outcomes in neighboring countries. This study not only contributes to the academic discourse but also provides practical insights for policymakers and activists engaged in the fields of democracy and equality.

Non-presenting author: David Calnitsky, Western University

This paper will be presented at the following session: