To Revolt or Not to Revolt: The Interplay of Migration Desires and Political Activism in Iran


Omid Asayesh, University of Calgary; Abdie Kazemipur, University of Calgary

Iran, a nation grappling with political oppression, economic crises, and societal conflicts, has witnessed a surge in discontent over recent decades, sparking various social movements. Amidst these adversities, a substantial segment of the population perceives international migration as the sole path to redemption. This research explores the nexus between the prevalent desire for migration in Iran and its potential impact on civic and political engagement. Data for the study is drawn from Social Media X (formerly Twitter) and Google Trends and analyzed using Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing techniques. Our analysis focuses on the discourse changes during the recent "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement in Iran. Findings reveal that aspirations for sociopolitical transformation during social movements have prompted shifts in migration-related discourses and a temporary decline in the desire for migration. However, this period of optimism proves transient, overshadowed by deeply ingrained cultural beliefs favouring migration as the primary alternative. The study underscores the cyclical nature of this dynamic and its implications for political activism in Iran.

This paper will be presented at the following session: