The bigger the better: Understanding households' vehicle choice preferences and willingness to pay for zero-emission vehicles in Saskatchewan


Angel Chow, University of Regina

The transportation sector is a major source of energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, constituting 24% of total emissions in Canada. It is also one of the largest sources of air pollution. Air pollutants from transportation emissions are associated with acid rain, smog, increased health risks of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and premature deaths. Among the Canadian provinces, Saskatchewan has the highest GHG emissions per capita – 67.7 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, which is 246% above the national average. The transportation sector accounts for 15% of the total GHG emissions in the province. Electrifying transportation is an effective way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution and decarbonize the transportation sector. Studies show that zero-emission vehicles, especially battery-powered vehicles, are effective in reducing gasoline consumption and mitigating carbon dioxide emissions from passenger transportation. For example, a battery-powered vehicle (Chevrolet, Bolt) emits three times fewer carbon dioxide per mile than a gasoline pickup truck (Ford F-150). Saskatchewan is an automobile-dependent province due to low population density, inaccessibility of public transportation in rural areas, affordability of private transportation and limited services of public transit in cities. Recent research shows a lack of awareness of passenger transportation emissions, particularly the impacts of large vehicles on the environment, in Saskatchewan. Saskatchewan households have preferences for conventional vehicles and believe that it is justifiable to drive large vehicles, such as SUVs and pickup trucks, given the snowy winter. They also prefer vehicles with larger passenger room for comfortable ride and cargo space for sports activities and road trips. The preferences for large vehicles are reflected in new vehicle registration data of Saskatchewan where pickup trucks and SUVs contributed to 39% and 50% of sales respectively in 2022, according to Statistics Canada. With preferences for large vehicles, limited choices of zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) models hinder Saskatchewan households’ transition to electric mobility. Of the 65 ZEV models eligible for federal financial incentives, only three models are large vehicles. Saskatchewan households also encounter other challenges of ZEV adoption, including low ZEV knowledge, lack of awareness of federal ZEV incentives and mandate, inadequate public charging infrastructure and ZEV supply, and misperceptions and disinformation of electric vehicles. These obstacles contribute to the low ZEV adoption rate of less than 2% in Saskatchewan, compared with 16% in British Columbia and 12% in Quebec in 2022. The purposes of this study are to explore Saskatchewan households’ stated vehicle preferences, identify social and psychological determinants driving and hindering ZEV adoption and examine policy implications on ZEV uptake in Saskatchewan. This study will pursue a mixed-method approach by utilizing a random utility model and a behavioural model. Based on the random utility model (McFadden, 1974), a discrete choice experiment will examine individuals’ stated preferences for vehicles by estimating their willingness-to-pay for an extra unit of an attribute and understand how they make trade-offs among various vehicle attributes and quantify estimates of latent demand for ZEVs. Individuals make decisions among available alternatives in which the highest utility or satisfaction is derived (i.e., utility maximization). The outcomes vary on the attributes of the alternatives and individual socio-economic characteristics. However, the rational choice theory tends to oversimplify human behaviour and ignore psychological and sociological factors under the assumption of rationality. In particular, vehicle purchase decisions are complex, not necessarily based on ration choice, with preferences on symbolic, societal and non-financial aspects. The current literature demonstrates the effects of social influence on vehicle choices of conventional and alternative fuel vehicles and the association between electric vehicle ownership of early adopters and social meaning. As such, this study will address the limitations by adopting a behavioural model – the Theory of Planned Behaviour (Ajzen, 1991), in conjunction with a discrete choice experiment to render a more comprehensive understanding of households’ vehicle preferences. The Theory of Planned Behaviour will explore how socio-psychological factors and government policies influence individuals’ intentions to buy ZEVs. This study will collect data by conducting an online survey, the Saskatchewan household vehicle survey and recruit about 500 participants in Saskatchewan by an online panel. Multinominal logit model and multiple linear regression model will be used to analyze data for the discrete choice experiment and the socio-psychological determinants of vehicle purchase intentions.

This paper will be presented at the following session: